States East of Mississippi See Steady Declines on the Week

As the national gas price average drops just two cents on the week to $2.47, states east of the Mississippi are paying as much as eight cents less at the start of this week. While gas prices are more expensive than a year ago, the past five weeks of sustained weekly declines indicate that demand may be leveling out alongside refineries and pipelines returning to pre-hurricane operations.

“Gas stations are steadily dropping pump prices for the majority of motorists, especially regional markets in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, South and Southeast,” said Jeanette Casselano, AAA spokesperson. “Drivers will see stabilized or decreasing prices at the pump throughout this month due to high refinery production rates and seasonal demand.”

In September, Hurricane Harvey drove gas prices to the highest price of the year - $2.67. That was a 32-cent increase inside of 12 days. Now nearly seven weeks post hurricane, gas prices have shown steady decline dropping a total of 20 cents since September 11, 2017.

Locally, South Jersey motorists are paying an average of $2.32 for a gallon of unleaded gas. This is 5 cents less than last week ($2.27), and 33 cents less than one month ago ($2.65). However, today’s price is still 34 cents more per gallon that this time last year ($1.98).

Quick Stats

• The nation’s top ten most expensive markets are: Hawaii ($3.11), California ($3.04), Alaska ($3.00), Washington ($2.93), Oregon ($2.77), Nevada ($2.73), Connecticut ($2.72), Idaho ($2.71), Washington, D.C. ($2.70) and New York ($2.67).
• The nation’s top ten markets with the largest weekly changes are: Ohio (+13 cents), Michigan (+12 cents), Indiana (+10 cents), South Carolina (-7 cents), Georgia (-7 cents), Tennessee (-7 cents), Florida (-7 cents), Texas (-7 cents), North Carolina (-6 cents) and Alabama (-6 cents).

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

For a second week, Tennessee (-7 cents) and North Carolina (-6 cents) saw the largest drop in gas prices of all states in the region. The most expensive gas price averages in the region can be found in Connecticut ($2.72), the District of Columbia ($2.70), New York ($2.67) and Pennsylvania ($2.67), which were also the four most expensive regional states one month ago. However, the differentiator is that gas prices in these four states are 13 to 21cents cheaper on the month. Overall, gas prices in the region are following the national trend downward and are expected to continue that path throughout the fall.

With a 1.27 million bbl increase in gasoline inventories, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast region saw the largest build of any region, though imports account for roughly 715,000 bbl of the build. Total inventories sit ahead of levels this time last year, albeit just by 278,000 bbl, according to the EIA

Oil market dynamics

At the close of Friday’s formal trading session on the NYMEX, WTI increased 85 cents to settle at $51.45. Moving into Monday and the rest of the week, oil prices may continue their upward trend. EIA’s latest report showed a 2.7 million bbl decline in crude oil stocks, which correlates with seeing an increase in gasoline stocks around the country. On the U.S. crude oil production side, the EIA report noted that there was an 87,000 b/d decline in production rates in the lower 48 states. That news followed Baker Hughes, Inc. reporting that the U.S. dropped 5 oil rigs last week, landing at a total of 743. When combined, both data points (crude production and oil rigs) may point toward reduced U.S. crude production and its potentially reduced contribution to global supply, which may help bolster the price per barrel of oil as the fall continues.

The International Energy Agency’s October Oil Market Report forecasted that three of the four quarters in 2018 will see the oil market in balance, assuming unchanged OPEC production and normal weather conditions. Based on the report, the global crude market is projected to see an inventory build of 800,000 b/d during the first quarter of 2018. Moreover, growth in oil demand is expected to match the increase in production next year from nonmember countries of OPEC, such as the U.S., and could cap oil prices throughout 2018. As a result, market observers will closely watch the upcoming OPEC meeting, scheduled for November 30 in Vienna. OPEC and non-OPEC members who have agreed to cut production through March 2018 will meet to discuss the status of the agreement and may decide to take additional measures to deepen the agreement’s market impact.

Motorists can find current gas prices along their route with the free AAA Mobile app for iPhone, iPad and Android. The app can also be used to map a route, find discounts, book a hotel and access AAA roadside assistance. Learn more at AAA.com/mobile.